Did NIW approvals drop after the January 2025 update?

USCIS recorded fewer NIW approvals and more denials after FY2024: 27,526 approvals and 11,256 denials in FY2024; 19,532 and 15,863 in FY2025; and 9,238 and 9,585 in the first three quarters of FY2026. The data does not say whether the update caused this, and decisions in a period can be for petitions filed earlier.

What is the NIW approval rate?

USCIS does not publish an NIW approval rate in these files. It publishes counts of petitions received, approved, denied, and pending in each period. Because decisions often cover petitions from earlier periods, and one person may file more than once, those counts are not a rate for any group of filers — and they are not your personal odds.

How many NIW petitions are pending?

96,297 at the end of June 2026 (end of FY2026 Q3), according to USCIS's I-140 data. That compares with 74,392 at the end of FY2025 and 44,093 at the end of FY2024.

Why do NIW appeals fail?

In the August 2026 AAO decisions we read, the most common reason was the national-importance part of Dhanasar's first prong — the record showed value to an employer or clients but not broader impact. Others failed on the second prong or on EB-2 eligibility itself. These are examples, not a statistical breakdown.

Does the AAO ever side with the petitioner?

Yes. In AUG172026_01B5203 (Aug. 17, 2026), the AAO withdrew a denial and sent the case back because USCIS had demanded evidence Dhanasar does not require, such as adoption across multiple states at scale or federal agency endorsement. The AAO said such evidence can help but is not required.

What can I do if my NIW is denied?

The Policy Manual says an NIW denial must explain your appeal rights and your option to file a motion to reopen or reconsider. Appeals and motions use Form I-290B; the G-1055 fee schedule (edition 10/07/26) lists $800 for general filing. Many people instead refile with a stronger record. Talk to a licensed immigration attorney about which path fits.

EB-2 NIW Adjudications After the 2025 Update: What USCIS Data Shows

Executive summary

This page uses only USCIS's published I-140 data and published AAO decisions. It reports counts exactly as USCIS publishes them. It does not claim a cause, and it is general information, not legal advice.

FY2024 (Oct. 2023–Sept. 2024): USCIS received 63,549 NIW petitions, approved 27,526, and denied 11,256. 44,093 were pending at year end.

FY2025 (Oct. 2024–Sept. 2025): USCIS received 66,276, approved 19,532, and denied 15,863. 74,392 were pending at year end. In the last quarter of FY2025 (July–Sept. 2025), denials (5,356) outnumbered approvals (2,968) for the first time in these three years of data.

FY2026, first three quarters (Oct. 2025–June 2026): USCIS received 40,363, approved 9,238, and denied 9,585. 96,297 were pending at the end of June 2026 — more than double the FY2024 year-end figure.

For contrast, in the same FY2026 period USCIS approved 38,835 and denied 1,258 EB-2 petitions that did not seek a waiver (employer-sponsored, with a labor certification).

The January 15, 2025 Policy Manual update falls in the second quarter of FY2025. The data shows what happened after it; it does not show why. Many other things — staffing, filing volume, the mix of cases — can move these numbers.

What this means, in plain English

More people are filing NIWs, more are waiting, and in recent quarters USCIS has denied about as many NIW petitions as it approved. That is very different from employer-sponsored EB-2 petitions, which USCIS approves far more often than it denies.

Be careful with these numbers. A denial counted in one quarter may be for a petition filed a year earlier. One person can file more than one petition. So you cannot turn these counts into "your chance of approval." They describe USCIS's workload, not your case.

The appeal decisions tell a clearer story about why NIWs fail. In the eight August 2026 AAO decisions we read, the most common problem was national importance: the petitioner showed the work was valuable but not that its impact reached beyond an employer or clients.

The practical lesson matches the Policy Manual: describe one specific endeavor, show its broader impact with independent evidence, and make your EB-2 eligibility documents exactly what the regulation asks for.

What the Court held

USCIS data (FY2026 Q1–Q3): 9,238 NIW approvals and 9,585 NIW denials; 96,297 NIW petitions pending as of the end of June 2026.
USCIS data (FY2025): 19,532 NIW approvals and 15,863 denials, compared with 27,526 approvals and 11,256 denials in FY2024.
AAO, Aug. 31, 2026 (AUG312026_01B5203): appeal dismissed. A healthcare data scientist with a Ph.D. did not show national importance; USCIS had found the impact did not extend beyond his prospective employers.
AAO, Aug. 26, 2026 (AUG262026_01B5203): appeal dismissed. Earthquake-science research had substantial merit, but the record did not show national importance beyond prospective customers.
AAO, Aug. 24, 2026 (AUG242026_02B5203): appeal dismissed. The AAO withdrew USCIS's finding that the petitioner had an advanced degree, because he offered letters from colleagues and clients, not from current or former employers, to prove five years of experience.
AAO, Aug. 28, 2026 (AUG282026_01B5203): appeal dismissed. The AAO found the first prong met for a microbiology Ph.D., but held that citations showing "some degree of interest" did not show she was well positioned.
AAO, Aug. 17, 2026 (AUG172026_01B5203): USCIS decision withdrawn and remanded. The AAO said the denial appeared to "require evidence not required" by Dhanasar, such as adoption across multiple states at scale or federal agency endorsement.